Midterm Elections and DC Home Sales — 14 Years of Bright MLS Data

Every election season I hear the same question from buyers and sellers in Washington: should we wait until after the election? I’ve been selling real estate in DC since 1999, and some version of that question comes up in almost every cycle. So this year I looked at the numbers. I pulled 14 years of Washington DC housing data from Bright MLS and compared how much contract activity picks up after the usual summer slowdown.

At first glance, the numbers seem to back up the idea that midterms slow the market. In years with no election, fall contract activity rose an average of 8.7%. In presidential election years it rose 11.4%. In midterm years the increase was only 2.6%.

That sounds convincing until you look at the individual years. In 2014, a midterm year, DC contracts rose 10.9% from the summer, a completely normal fall. In 2018, contract activity rose just six-tenths of 1%, but mortgage rates were approaching 5%, their highest level in years. In 2022, contracts actually fell 3.7% from the summer, and that was the year mortgage rates climbed above 7%.

Here’s where it gets interesting. In 2023 there was no election at all. Mortgage rates climbed to nearly 8%, and the fall increase in DC contracts was just four-tenths of 1%, almost the same as the slow midterm fall of 2018. Look past the election calendar and a different pattern shows up: interest rates have had a much stronger relationship with buyer activity than Election Day.

Now we have 2026. In September, DC buyers signed 499 new contracts, almost 12% above the monthly average for July and August. In a typical September that bump is closer to 7%, so this midterm fall is picking up faster than usual, not slower. That doesn’t mean the DC housing market is booming. September contracts were still below last year, inventory is higher, and affordability still matters. But the data doesn’t show buyers stopping because an election is coming.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Washington, I wouldn’t make that decision based on Election Day. I’d watch interest rates, inventory and pricing, and above all whether the timing makes sense for you. All 14 years of data and the complete analysis are in Do Midterms Slow DC Home Sales? What 14 Years Show. To talk through your own timing, reach out to Wardman Residential at Compass.